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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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